Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 43% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1441 at 18:35, 40%.

Safest bet today DL 1441 DFW 18:35 → DTW 22:20 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 3990 DFW 17:44 → DTW 21:27 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 43% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1441 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:35	DTW 22:20	40%	11%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DTW 17:10	46%	10%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 3108 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	DTW 22:36	50%	19%	0.6%	52%
AA 2508 American Flight history →	DFW 17:25	DTW 21:04	58%	20%	0.5%	61%worse than usual
AA 2822 American	DFW 15:26	DTW 19:17	58%	19%	0.6%	no record
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	DTW 18:59	60%	20%	0.6%	49%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:44	DTW 21:27	60%	29%	1.1%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON