Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:11 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: AA 1393 at 20:08 is the safest bet, 52% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 55–66%.

Safest bet today AA 1393 DFW 20:08 → FLL 23:58 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time Riskiest F9 1974 DFW 13:53 → FLL 17:55 · 66% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 53% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1393 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	FLL 23:58	52%	15%	0.5%	36%
AA 2946 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	FLL 22:52	55%	19%	0.6%	49%
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 19:09	FLL 23:17	55%	19%	0.6%	62%worse than usual
AA 2798 American	DFW 14:29	FLL 18:30	55%	19%	0.7%	no record
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	64%	22%	0.6%	25%
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 13:40	FLL 17:44	64%	22%	1.3%	no record
F9 1974 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:53	FLL 17:55	66%	22%	1.2%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON