Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3557 at 16:00, 48%.

Safest bet today AA 3557 DFW 16:00 → GSP 19:30 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1805 DFW 13:03 → GSP 16:25 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3557 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:00	GSP 19:30	48%	11%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
MQ 3483 Envoy	DFW 16:01	GSP 19:34	48%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2992 American Flight history →	DFW 19:50	GSP 23:16	50%	21%	0.8%	59%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	GSP 16:36	56%	19%	0.8%	54%worse than usual
AA 1805 American Flight history →	DFW 13:03	GSP 16:25	60%	20%	0.8%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON