Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: MQ 3864 at 22:44 is the safest bet, 42% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 50–55%.

Safest bet today MQ 3864 DFW 22:44 → HOU 00:09 · 42% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6252 DFW 16:42 → HOU 18:06 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 52% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3864 Envoy	DFW 22:44	HOU 00:09	42%	10%	2.4%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:28	HOU 19:48	50%	15%	2.7%	68%worse than usual
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	HOU 19:53	51%	15%	3.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:56	HOU 18:19	53%	25%	2.7%	64%worse than usual
OO 6252 SkyWest	DFW 16:42	HOU 18:06	55%	23%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON