Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 41% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1248 at 18:31, 58%.

Safest bet today AA 1248 DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:05 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:05	58%	22%	0.6%	64%worse than usual
AA 1203 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:30	58%	24%	0.6%	46%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	62%	29%	0.6%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON