Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:45 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Today: F9 3885 at 22:51 is the safest bet, 46% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46–62%.

Safest bet today F9 3885 DFW 22:51 → LAS 23:47 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 265 DFW 18:10 → LAS 19:02 · 62% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 51% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


F9 3885 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:51	LAS 23:47	46%	16%	1.4%	73%worse than usual
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 21:18	LAS 22:23	46%	11%	0.6%	41%
AA 624 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	LAS 23:44	48%	12%	0.6%	65%worse than usual
AA 2998 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	LAS 23:48	50%	12%	0.6%	52%
AA 1797 American Flight history →	DFW 20:54	LAS 21:45	52%	16%	0.6%	55%
F9 1647 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAS 21:31	54%	24%	1.4%	60%worse than usual
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	58%	20%	0.6%	54%worse than usual
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	58%	20%	0.6%	59%worse than usual
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	58%	22%	0.6%	56%worse than usual
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	60%	22%	0.6%	61%worse than usual
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:38	LAS 16:35	61%	24%	0.6%	no record
AA 265 American	DFW 18:10	LAS 19:02	62%	23%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON