Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:43 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3289 at 11:30, 42%.

Safest bet today AA 3289 DFW 11:30 → LGA 16:02 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest F9 3424 DFW 15:11 → LGA 19:45 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3289 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	LGA 16:02	42%	10%	0.9%	52%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:43	LGA 16:15	43%	10%	1.0%	38%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	45%	12%	0.6%	64%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	45%	13%	0.6%	59%
AA 2708 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	LGA 23:45	46%	12%	1.0%	55%
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:01	LGA 23:31	47%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	LGA 17:05	51%	10%	1.0%	59%worse than usual
AA 2388 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	LGA 17:05	52%	11%	1.0%	42%
AA 1535 American Flight history →	DFW 13:54	LGA 18:28	55%	15%	0.9%	58%worse than usual
AA 1806 American	DFW 14:06	LGA 18:47	56%	15%	0.8%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	58%	14%	0.5%	69%worse than usual
AA 2434 American	DFW 15:06	LGA 19:47	60%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	60%	15%	0.9%	54%worse than usual
AA 2922 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LGA 15:14	60%	10%	1.2%	69%worse than usual
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	LGA 22:25	61%	14%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	65%	17%	0.8%	56%worse than usual
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:11	LGA 19:45	68%	23%	1.8%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON