Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:49 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54% (calm day: 31%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 16:23, 45% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 52m	88%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 24m	34%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON