Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 3677 at 16:21 is the safest bet, 38% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–58%.

Safest bet today AA 3677 DFW 16:21 → MEM 18:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest AA 2153 DFW 16:44 → MEM 18:26 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 51% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3677 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:21	MEM 18:00	38%	13%	0.7%	59%
AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:46	MEM 19:33	39%	15%	0.6%	64%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	DFW 21:34	MEM 23:17	56%	24%	0.6%	61%worse than usual
AA 1646 American Flight history →	DFW 22:31	MEM 00:04	58%	24%	0.6%	39%
AA 3262 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	MEM 21:27	58%	30%	0.7%	44%
AA 2153 American Flight history →	DFW 16:44	MEM 18:26	58%	24%	0.8%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON