Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:16 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 54% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1455 at 21:33, 62%.

Nonstops today


AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 21:33	MSY 23:16	62%	22%	1.0%	59%worse than usual
AA 2237 American Flight history →	DFW 19:56	MSY 21:37	68%	25%	0.8%	59%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 19:34 → IAH 20:55UA 2114	1h 20m Houston	IAH 22:15 → MSY 23:26UA 2474	3h 52m	52%	35%
Delta Details →	DFW 18:32 → ATL 21:59DL 374	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224	5h 11m	50%	16%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON