Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 2239 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 49% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 56–60%.

Safest bet today AA 2239 DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest F9 4689 DFW 17:26 → ONT 18:50 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 57% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2239 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:22	49%	12%	1.0%	58%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:38	ONT 13:21	52%	12%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
AA 711 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ONT 22:32	56%	14%	0.6%	53%
AA 2147 American	DFW 20:00	ONT 21:12	56%	19%	1.0%	no record
AA 1695 American	DFW 22:40	ONT 23:55	58%	14%	0.7%	no record
AA 3006 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	ONT 19:06	60%	18%	0.7%	65%worse than usual
AA 1534 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	ONT 23:59	60%	13%	0.7%	39%
AA 2236 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	ONT 19:59	60%	16%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:26	ONT 18:50	60%	24%	1.3%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON