Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:53 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 51% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1267 at 18:51, 62%.

Nonstops today


AA 1267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	RSW 22:38	62%	24%	1.5%	57%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:34DL 921	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	7h 00m	100%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:45AA 2407	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176	5h 55m	62%	35%
United Details →	DFW 16:01 → IAH 17:18UA 2682	1h 07m Houston	IAH 18:25 → RSW 21:49UA 2095	4h 48m	51%	30%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	6h 32m	73%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON