Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:43 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Today: UA 1712 at 11:02 is the safest bet, 36% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–56%.

Safest bet today UA 1712 DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1712 United Flight history →	DFW 11:02	SFO 12:51	36%	9%	0.2%	31%
UA 454 United Flight history →	DFW 15:21	SFO 17:13	39%	11%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:37	SFO 17:45	39%	11%	0.2%	50%
AA 2997 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	SFO 14:58	40%	14%	0.4%	54%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	42%	12%	0.6%	57%
AA 2775 American	DFW 22:09	SFO 00:05	42%	11%	0.3%	no record
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	SFO 15:03	42%	14%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
AA 446 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	SFO 00:43	46%	13%	1.0%	50%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:38	SFO 19:33	47%	16%	0.3%	no record
UA 1273 United Flight history →	DFW 19:54	SFO 21:46	48%	13%	0.3%	15%
AA 3072 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SFO 19:39	49%	17%	0.3%	39%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:53	SFO 21:42	49%	13%	0.3%	71%worse than usual
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	SFO 22:16	50%	14%	0.5%	26%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	50%	17%	1.7%	55%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	SFO 22:28	53%	15%	0.5%	20%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	54%	18%	0.4%	43%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	56%	17%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON