Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:32 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: DL 2800 at 14:31 is the safest bet, 42% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–63%.

Safest bet today DL 2800 DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2378 DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	42%	12%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
DL 1539 Delta	DFW 18:10	SLC 19:53	46%	19%	0.3%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	DFW 14:17	SLC 16:10	48%	19%	0.7%	62%
DL 2812 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:12	SLC 20:00	48%	20%	0.3%	55%
AA 2594 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	SLC 15:52	49%	20%	0.7%	47%
F9 3277 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:10	SLC 18:04	49%	16%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
AA 2993 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SLC 22:59	60%	24%	0.6%	47%
AA 2507 American Flight history →	DFW 21:53	SLC 23:48	60%	26%	0.6%	52%worse than usual
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	60%	30%	0.7%	50%worse than usual
AA 2378 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	SLC 00:36	63%	29%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON