Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 52–55% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 509 DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time Riskiest AA 3314 DFW 20:59 → SMF 22:33 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 54% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	52%	15%	0.6%	44%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 16:43	SMF 18:20	54%	19%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
AA 3314 American Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SMF 22:33	55%	19%	0.6%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON