Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 52–60% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1580 DFW 22:50 → TUS 23:19 · 52% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1207 DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 55% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1580 American	DFW 22:50	TUS 23:19	52%	28%	0.6%	no record
AA 1109 American Flight history →	DFW 22:54	TUS 23:11	55%	30%	0.7%	52%
AA 3140 American	DFW 17:10	TUS 17:37	58%	34%	0.7%	no record
AA 1207 American Flight history →	DFW 19:36	TUS 19:52	60%	35%	0.7%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON