Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Detroit); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2715 at 21:45, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	BWI 23:18	35%	10%	0.4%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	6h 08m	87%	63%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	6h 30m	93%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 19:45 → ORD 20:22UA 5483 · flown by SkyWest	58m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	4h 43m	55%	39%
American Details →	DTW 19:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1794	50m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318	4h 16m	56%	36%
Delta Details →	DTW 19:35 → ATL 21:44DL 2045	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	5h 04m	65%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON