Today: AA 2822 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 38% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–52%.

Safest bet today AA 2822 DTW 20:00 → DFW 21:57 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1543 DTW 15:50 → DFW 17:36 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2822 American	DTW 20:00	DFW 21:57	38%	15%	1.2%	no record
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	38%	14%	0.7%	74%worse than usual
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DTW 19:51	DFW 21:44	39%	16%	1.0%	47%
F9 3175 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 22:22	DFW 00:27	45%	24%	1.8%	54%
AA 1793 American Flight history →	DTW 15:52	DFW 17:50	46%	25%	1.1%	68%worse than usual
AA 3310 American Flight history →	DTW 16:05	DFW 18:08	48%	25%	1.3%	67%worse than usual
DL 1441 Delta	DTW 16:03	DFW 17:57	48%	20%	0.6%	no record
DL 1543 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	DFW 17:36	52%	19%	0.6%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON