Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1718 at 15:57, 36%.

Safest bet today DL 1718 DTW 15:57 → IAH 18:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest DL 1529 DTW 16:51 → IAH 18:52 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1718 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:57	IAH 18:03	36%	9%	0.2%	68%
DL 1633 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:25	IAH 22:24	38%	9%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
DL 1529 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:51	IAH 18:52	42%	9%	0.2%	70%worse than usual
UA 4032 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:40	IAH 20:50	23%	5%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON