tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:41 pm at Detroit); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 20:06, 45% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 852 Delta Flight history → DTW 18:20 LAX 20:04 30% 9% 0.1% 80%
DL 694 Delta Flight history → DTW 20:59 LAX 22:46 37% 9% 0.2% 67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 8h 43m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa 1h 00m Dulles IAD 22:20 → LAX 00:57 +1UA 1385 8h 12m 78% 58%
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:40 → IAH 20:50UA 4032 · flown by Mesa 1h 13m Houston IAH 22:03 → LAX 23:38UA 2215 7h 58m 87% 57%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:25 → MDW 20:35WN 1782 1h 56m Chicago MDW 22:31 → LAX 00:51 +1WN 246 7h 26m 94% 56%
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 2060 8h 49m 87% 55%
AmericanDetails → DTW 17:57 → PHX 19:08AA 1790 1h 30m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 7h 10m 93% 46%
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575 9h 21m 91% 25%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303 59m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 6h 47m 60% 45%
AmericanDetails → DTW 19:17 → PHL 21:02AA 5167 · flown by PSA 1h 03m Philadelphia PHL 22:05 → LAX 00:50 +1AA 738 8h 33m 56% 33%
AmericanDetails → DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038 7h 13m 58% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON