Today: DL 2603 at 21:50 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–48%.

Safest bet today DL 2603 DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 4630 DTW 18:33 → LGA 20:29 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 54% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	33%	11%	0.7%	74%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:48	LGA 21:48	37%	15%	0.7%	68%
AA 4630 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 18:33	LGA 20:29	48%	23%	1.3%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON