Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 40–47% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 4968 DTW 20:31 → MDW 20:51 · 40% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1782 DTW 20:25 → MDW 20:35 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4968 Southwest	DTW 20:31	MDW 20:51	40%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 20:25	MDW 20:35	47%	10%	0.2%	39%
DL 4677 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:07	MDW 18:25	40%	24%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON