Today: AA 3500 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–44%.

Safest bet today AA 3500 DTW 21:20 → ORD 21:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest DL 1665 DTW 20:00 → ORD 20:31 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 23 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3500 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 21:20	ORD 21:57	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
MQ 3947 Envoy	DTW 20:55	ORD 21:26	25%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 2771 United	DTW 19:16	ORD 19:49	38%	12%	0.2%	no record
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	ORD 18:29	40%	11%	0.7%	61%
UA 5264 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 18:20	ORD 18:57	42%	12%	0.5%	70%worse than usual
UA 5483 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 19:45	ORD 20:22	42%	18%	0.6%	50%
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	44%	14%	0.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON