Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:49 pm at Detroit); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:09, 29% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	6h 42m	93%	29%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 20:06 → CLT 22:04AA 660	52m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	4h 45m	56%	28%
Delta Details →	DTW 19:35 → ATL 21:44DL 2045	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	5h 16m	75%	23%
JetBlue Details →	DTW 18:44 → BOS 20:40B6 1136	55m Boston	BOS 21:35 → PBI 00:53 +1B6 2421	6h 09m	45%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON