Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 38–42% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1786 ELP 19:10 → DAL 22:00 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4836 ELP 20:00 → DAL 22:52 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1786 Southwest	ELP 19:10	DAL 22:00	38%	12%	0.5%	no record
WN 2487 Southwest	ELP 18:15	DAL 21:07	38%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 1794 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 20:05	DAL 22:55	40%	12%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
WN 4836 Southwest	ELP 20:00	DAL 22:52	42%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON