Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:23 pm at Newark); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:59, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	8h 24m	80%	63%
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	2h 27m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	8h 34m	92%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00DL 2866	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	7h 07m	66%	51%
United Details →	EWR 15:41 → DEN 18:23UA 663	1h 02m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	7h 33m	57%	35%
Alaska Details →	EWR 16:31 → SEA 19:48AS 356	52m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458	8h 48m	57%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON