Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:49 pm at Newark); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 19:30, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Columbia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 22:55 → CAE 23:58AA 5791 · flown by Piedmont	4h 29m	56%	40%
Delta Details →	EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:30DL 2340	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	4h 37m	44%	21%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON