Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 60–64% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1811 EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 1330 EWR 19:30 → CLT 21:22 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 62% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 58% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1811 American Flight history →	EWR 19:29	CLT 21:32	60%	22%	1.4%	61%worse than usual
UA 2104 United Flight history →	EWR 18:08	CLT 20:22	61%	19%	0.5%	65%worse than usual
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:04	CLT 20:56	62%	22%	0.5%	no record
AA 1330 American Flight history →	EWR 19:30	CLT 21:22	64%	19%	1.3%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON