Today: AA 1796 at 12:28 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–60%.

Safest bet today AA 1796 EWR 12:28 → DFW 15:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 2840 EWR 18:15 → DFW 21:00 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1796 American Flight history →	EWR 12:28	DFW 15:19	33%	11%	0.7%	75%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DFW 15:46	35%	14%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	EWR 12:21	DFW 15:10	35%	14%	0.7%	60%
UA 1396 United	EWR 13:02	DFW 15:47	36%	14%	0.6%	no record
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	44%	20%	1.1%	74%worse than usual
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	45%	14%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
UA 2856 United Flight history →	EWR 19:10	DFW 22:04	48%	12%	0.8%	74%worse than usual
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	56%	18%	1.1%	47%
UA 1277 United	EWR 20:59	DFW 23:43	58%	14%	1.1%	no record
UA 2840 United	EWR 18:15	DFW 21:00	60%	14%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON