Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2759 at 11:51, 24%.

Safest bet today UA 2759 EWR 11:51 → FLL 14:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 305 EWR 20:46 → FLL 23:55 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2759 United	EWR 11:51	FLL 14:43	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	EWR 13:25	FLL 16:35	28%	9%	0.4%	81%
UA 1907 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	FLL 20:48	44%	11%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 15:25	FLL 18:27	48%	19%	0.7%	42%
UA 2096 United	EWR 17:42	FLL 20:34	48%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 435 United	EWR 19:27	FLL 22:19	52%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 1897 United Flight history →	EWR 20:44	FLL 23:59	53%	13%	0.8%	65%worse than usual
B6 305 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:46	FLL 23:55	60%	20%	0.8%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON