Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2301 at 15:05, 45%.

Safest bet today UA 2301 EWR 15:05 → IAD 16:40 · 45% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2677 EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2301 United	EWR 15:05	IAD 16:40	45%	14%	0.4%	no record
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	50%	19%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
UA 1992 United Flight history →	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:32	51%	14%	0.4%	68%worse than usual
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	60%	22%	0.7%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON