Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2690 at 14:00, 30%.

Safest bet today UA 2690 EWR 14:00 → IAH 16:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 2425 EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2690 United Flight history →	EWR 14:00	IAH 16:58	30%	12%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
UA 1830 United	EWR 13:54	IAH 16:43	35%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	40%	14%	0.3%	69%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	47%	16%	0.3%	69%worse than usual
UA 265 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	IAH 22:38	47%	15%	0.4%	72%worse than usual
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:46	IAH 22:38	48%	16%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	49%	12%	0.4%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON