Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 pm at Newark); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 53–54% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:57	IND 22:24	53%	19%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
UA 3705 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:53	IND 22:15	54%	19%	0.6%	80%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → IND 23:59UA 4021 · flown by Mesa	4h 30m	58%	37%
Delta Details →	EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:29DL 2340	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	5h 35m	50%	21%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → IND 00:09 +1AA 1033	4h 40m	22%	13%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON