Today: UA 212 at 12:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–47%.

Safest bet today UA 212 EWR 12:00 → LAX 14:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 2073 EWR 20:59 → LAX 23:57 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	14%	6%	0.2%	78%
UA 2191 United Flight history →	EWR 14:15	LAX 17:13	27%	9%	0.4%	78%
UA 1355 United	EWR 16:44	LAX 19:44	33%	11%	0.4%	no record
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	33%	13%	1.0%	74%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	35%	11%	0.4%	72%
UA 2238 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	LAX 18:42	35%	10%	0.4%	70%
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	42%	13%	0.4%	68%worse than usual
UA 712 United Flight history →	EWR 20:10	LAX 23:15	45%	16%	0.6%	59%
UA 345 United	EWR 20:15	LAX 23:09	47%	19%	0.7%	no record
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:59	LAX 23:57	47%	19%	1.0%	68%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999	1h 30m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	8h 20m	84%	58%
American Details →	EWR 13:30 → CLT 15:34AA 1819	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 16:50 → LAX 18:55AA 1499	8h 25m	83%	55%
United Details →	EWR 12:25 → LAS 14:53UA 1864	1h 23m Las Vegas	LAS 16:16 → LAX 17:32UA 1803	8h 07m	90%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON