Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58%, against 47% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1900 at 16:55, 55%.

Safest bet today UA 1900 EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1727 EWR 18:45 → MCO 21:42 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 58% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	55%	24%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
UA 1932 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	MCO 21:36	56%	32%	1.4%	56%worse than usual
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	58%	30%	1.2%	73%worse than usual
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:57	MCO 21:44	60%	32%	1.4%	no record
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:09	MCO 22:54	60%	34%	1.4%	67%worse than usual
B6 1727 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MCO 21:42	60%	34%	1.8%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON