Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1068 at 13:55, 28%.

Safest bet today UA 1068 EWR 13:55 → MSP 15:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2866 EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1068 United Flight history →	EWR 13:55	MSP 15:55	28%	15%	0.4%	81%
DL 2895 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:01	MSP 16:57	35%	18%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
UA 424 United	EWR 14:07	MSP 16:05	35%	20%	0.4%	no record
UA 1331 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MSP 23:59	48%	30%	0.6%	62%worse than usual
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MSP 21:00	49%	21%	0.6%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON