Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Newark); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2659 at 15:25, 42%.

Nonstops today


UA 2659 United Flight history →	EWR 15:25	PBI 18:27	42%	11%	4.4%	75%worse than usual
UA 2650 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	PBI 23:28	53%	9%	5.5%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	8h 22m	97%	40%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606	7h 01m	92%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	5h 22m	61%	30%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058	5h 30m	71%	29%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	5h 52m	55%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON