Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:08 pm at Newark); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:01, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 560 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	PDX 21:48	36%	18%	0.4%	74%worse than usual
AS 290 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:05	PDX 20:17	37%	17%	0.4%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	EWR 17:43 → SEA 20:39AS 296	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon	9h 39m	96%	78%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → PDX 22:41UA 2243	10h 56m	91%	74%
United Details →	EWR 16:00 → SFO 19:28UA 2080	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	11h 50m	99%	72%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328	3h 02m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	11h 03m	94%	70%
American Details →	EWR 17:21 → ORD 19:23AA 1936	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 21:59 → PDX 00:42 +1AA 2977	10h 21m	85%	70%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:01 → MSP 16:57DL 2895	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 14m	79%	65%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → PDX 21:53DL 691	9h 32m	86%	59%
Alaska Details →	EWR 16:31 → SEA 19:48AS 356	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 22:29 → PDX 23:30AS 1457	9h 59m	84%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:28 → PDX 23:42AA 2298	9h 32m	50%	29%
Alaska Details →	EWR 17:36 → SEA 20:58AS 462	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → PDX 23:02AS 1495	8h 26m	57%	25%
Alaska Details →	EWR 17:43 → SEA 20:39AS 296	49m Seattle	SEA 21:28 → PDX 22:25AS 498	7h 42m	34%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON