Today: AA 1327 at 17:40 is the safest bet, 42% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45–54%.

Safest bet today AA 1327 EWR 17:40 → PHX 20:06 · 42% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2321 EWR 20:19 → PHX 22:37 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 55% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1327 American	EWR 17:40	PHX 20:06	42%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EWR 17:29	PHX 19:51	45%	16%	0.6%	63%
UA 676 United	EWR 18:28	PHX 20:53	49%	24%	0.7%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:51	PHX 21:07	51%	24%	0.8%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:19	PHX 22:37	54%	25%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON