Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:06 pm at Newark); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1233 at 20:30, with a 55% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1233 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	RDU 22:20	55%	26%	0.6%	40%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 19:29	RDU 21:25	43%	23%	8.8%	57%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677	1h 25m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → RDU 23:44UA 2382	4h 15m	65%	48%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 22:57 → RDU 23:58AA 494	4h 29m	49%	30%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON