Today: UA 2477 at 14:41 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35–45%.

Safest bet today UA 2477 EWR 14:41 → SNA 17:37 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:05 → SNA 20:11 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2477 United	EWR 14:41	SNA 17:37	33%	21%	0.4%	no record
UA 1350 United Flight history →	EWR 14:29	SNA 17:18	35%	20%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:05	SNA 20:11	45%	17%	0.6%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 15:01 → MSP 16:57DL 2895	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107	8h 19m	76%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON