Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 43–49% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 662 FLL 17:25 → BNA 18:49 · 43% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2481 FLL 18:40 → BNA 20:07 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 662 Southwest	FLL 17:25	BNA 18:49	43%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 1911 Southwest	FLL 20:20	BNA 21:44	45%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 1852 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 20:30	BNA 21:50	45%	7%	0.1%	29%
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	46%	14%	0.4%	48%
G4 493 Allegiant Flight history →	FLL 18:14	BNA 19:29	48%	12%	0.4%	8%
B6 2481 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	BNA 20:07	49%	14%	0.6%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON