Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:02 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 59%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: DL 522 at 20:51, 45%.

Safest bet today DL 522 FLL 20:51 → BOS 00:16 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 19:54 → BOS 22:28 · 79% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 522 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:51	BOS 00:16	45%	23%	0.4%	47%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:37	BOS 22:48	52%	34%	0.4%	69%worse than usual
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:25	BOS 00:47	60%	41%	0.6%	63%worse than usual
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:54	BOS 22:28	79%	64%	0.6%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON