Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Fort Lauderdale)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 15:30, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 37% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 19:10 → BUR 21:44WN 224	9h 14m	96%	60%
American Details →	FLL 15:13 → DFW 17:27AA 1390	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	9h 45m	92%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417	55m Denver	DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411	8h 13m	68%	38%
American Details →	FLL 17:37 → DFW 19:57AA 1373	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	7h 21m	37%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON