Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: F9 3451 at 16:14, 45%.

Nonstops today


F9 3451 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 16:14	CLE 19:12	45%	18%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
B6 1590 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLE 23:55	56%	18%	0.3%	57%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 22:57 → CLE 23:56DL 3646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	96%	64%
United Details →	FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457	7h 29m	92%	63%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:29 → JFK 18:48DL 305	2h 42m New York	JFK 21:30 → CLE 23:43DL 4946 · flown by Endeavor	8h 15m	94%	59%
Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	3h 40m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → CLE 23:05WN 474	7h 35m	98%	53%
American Details →	FLL 15:57 → PHL 18:53AA 1855	3h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 21:56 → CLE 23:32AA 981	7h 35m	95%	48%
Delta Details →	FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	6h 21m	90%	46%
American Details →	FLL 16:12 → CLT 18:26AA 1875	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21AA 3146	6h 09m	93%	45%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:44 → ATL 17:54DL 1341	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339	6h 01m	94%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 19:41 → CLT 21:52AA 1861	58m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	4h 48m	62%	33%
United Details →	FLL 15:52 → EWR 18:59UA 1800	56m Newark	EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398	5h 53m	63%	31%
American Details →	FLL 16:39 → DFW 19:00AA 638	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:56 → CLE 23:33AA 560	6h 54m	55%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON