Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:38 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 1861 at 19:41 is the safest bet, 38% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–53%.

Safest bet today AA 1861 FLL 19:41 → CLT 21:52 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest B6 1149 FLL 18:59 → CLT 21:09 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1861 American Flight history →	FLL 19:41	CLT 21:52	38%	10%	0.3%	58%
AA 1364 American	FLL 19:46	CLT 21:51	38%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 1652 American	FLL 17:34	CLT 19:41	40%	8%	0.4%	no record
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	47%	15%	0.6%	41%
F9 1984 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:54	CLT 21:07	50%	18%	1.2%	65%worse than usual
B6 1149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:59	CLT 21:09	53%	16%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON