Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:11 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 107 Southwest	FLL 16:20	DAL 18:15	38%	7%	0.3%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	FLL 18:11	DAL 20:13	38%	11%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	3h 16m Nashville	BNA 20:06 → DAL 22:09WN 3857	7h 39m	98%	59%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:44 → ATL 17:54DL 1341	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 41m	97%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	FLL 15:30 → BNA 16:50WN 1715	1h 03m Nashville	BNA 17:53 → DAL 19:54WN 1691	5h 24m	68%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON