Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:24 pm at Fort Lauderdale); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Today: AA 638 at 16:39 is the safest bet, 43% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 45–64%.

Safest bet today AA 638 FLL 16:39 → DFW 19:00 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 1973 FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 638 American Flight history →	FLL 16:39	DFW 19:00	43%	15%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 1868 American Flight history →	FLL 19:11	DFW 21:23	45%	11%	0.6%	30%
AA 2798 American	FLL 19:18	DFW 21:27	45%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2014 American Flight history →	FLL 16:26	DFW 18:39	45%	16%	0.7%	37%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	FLL 17:38	DFW 19:57	46%	12%	0.6%	64%worse than usual
AA 1863 American Flight history →	FLL 15:04	DFW 17:22	46%	14%	0.7%	56%
B6 2279 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	DFW 23:16	47%	16%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
AA 1390 American Flight history →	FLL 15:14	DFW 17:27	47%	14%	0.7%	58%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	FLL 17:29	DFW 19:49	47%	13%	0.7%	44%
F9 3317 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:35	DFW 20:52	63%	25%	1.2%	56%worse than usual
F9 1973 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 18:50	DFW 21:06	64%	24%	1.1%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON