Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:06 am at Fort Lauderdale); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: UA 210 at 11:11, 28%.

Safest bet today UA 210 FLL 11:11 → EWR 14:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 63% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 11:11	EWR 14:15	28%	6%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:46	EWR 15:50	35%	8%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 460 United	FLL 14:40	EWR 17:48	47%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:52	EWR 18:59	48%	15%	0.7%	61%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:44	EWR 20:55	49%	15%	0.7%	69%worse than usual
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	60%	28%	1.9%	51%worse than usual
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	63%	25%	1.0%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON