Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:43 am at Fort Lauderdale); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: UA 2162 at 13:10 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–46%.

Safest bet today UA 2162 FLL 13:10 → IAH 15:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 1495 FLL 12:56 → IAH 14:50 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	21%	6%	0.2%	84%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	FLL 19:13	IAH 21:09	24%	8%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
UA 2724 United Flight history →	FLL 15:14	IAH 17:10	25%	7%	0.2%	78%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	30%	8%	0.2%	79%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:29	IAH 20:18	30%	8%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	46%	14%	0.4%	45%
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	47%	17%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	52%	20%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON